WR Cruz has become an instant success for Giants
Football Betting Lines
08/21/2010 -
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) -Just a couple of weeks ago, Victor Cruz was one of 80 players practicing with the New York Giants at training camp.
When workouts were over and he headed toward the locker room, few people recognized him. He was simply No. 3, as in, ``Hey, No. 3, can I have your autograph?''
A little more than two weeks later, Cruz has become an instant celebrity. It's the byproduct of catching three touchdown passes in a 31-16 preseason victory over the rival Jets in the first game at the New Meadowlands Stadium.
The anonymity is gone for the free agent wide receiver from the University of Massachusetts, via Paterson, N.J. ``Hey, Cruz give us your autograph!'' Or even better: ``Victor!'' Just like the other stars that fans call on a first-name basis, like Eli and Osi and Justin.
``I am still humble,'' Cruz said. ``I am still a rookie. Those guys (the veterans) still kick me around and stuff like that. I just want to take it day by day and stay consistent. I am just happy I got the opportunity to go out and show what I could do.''
What Cruz did is extraordinary. No Giants receiver had caught three touchdown passes in a game since Plaxico Burress in a loss against Dallas on Sept. 9, 2007.
The last time a Giant did it in a win was Dec. 22, 2002, when Amani Toomer had three in a win over the Colts.
``Whatever comes, I'll just take it in stride,'' Cruz said. ``I don't want it to stop here. I want it to continue and get better as the practices and games go on. I want to prove I belong in this league and move forward.''
Cruz will get a chance to do that on Saturday night when the Giants play their first home game in their new $1.6 billion stadium against Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Roethlisberger is excepted to play for the first time since drawing a six-game suspension.
Cruz just hopes to do his own thing.
``I wouldn't call myself a star just yet,'' Cruz said with a big smile. ``It feels good. It's about being consistent and going out to practice every day and just continue making plays and catching everything thrown my way.''
Cruz didn't show a lot in the first week of training camp, but he caught three or four long passes in the week leading up to the Jets game. His play was so good that coach Tom Coughlin singled him out after one workout.
Then came the game in which Cruz exceeded all expectations. He caught six passes for 145 yards against the Jets, highlighted by a one-handed grab with his left hand on a 64-yard scoring pass from Jim Sorgi. Cruz also had TD catches of 34 yards from Sorgi and 5 yards from Rhett Bomar. All three scoring pass came on fade patterns.
The one-handed catch with cornerback Dwight Lowery in great coverage was spectacular.
``I stuck my hand out the last minute and he dove and missed, and I just trucked it in and took it into the end zone,'' Cruz said. ``I couldn't believe it. I was smiling. I was like, 'Did I really just like grab it with one hand?' It was surreal when I got in the end zone. It was one of the happiest moments in my life to date.''
The other was seeing his mother Blanca crying her eyes out in the stands after the game.
Getting to the locker room was also interesting. Cruz had 182 text messages on his telephone and was stunned to hear that NBA superstar LeBron James had tweeted about his performance.
Cruz said he returned 90 percent of the texts, including about 70 from telephone numbers that he did not recognize.
``It meant a lot for me for everything to come together that way, especially being at home and having 20 of your friends in the stands,'' Cruz said. ``It was definitely one of the craziest moments in my life.''
The performance definitely will go a long way in helping Cruz make the Giants roster, but a spot is not guaranteed with veterans Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Derek Hagan, Ramses Barden and Sinorice Moss all competing for spots.
``I hope it helps a lot,'' Cruz said. ``But you know I have no control over that. Those guys on top make that decision. I'm on the field making plays and running around.''
If he keeps running around like last game, he'll be on the Giants roster for the regular-season opener against Carolina.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) -As far as the Green Bay Packers are concerned, bland is the new blitz - at least when it comes to the preseason.Entering their second year in defensive coordinator Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme, the Packers are facing a far more gentl
<< Red-hot! Cincinnati wins seventh straight, expands NL Central lead
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Homer Bailey pitched seven effective
innings and Brandon Phillips had three hits and drove in all of Cincinnati's
runs in a 3-1 win over Los Angeles, as the Red snapped a 12-game skid at
Dodger
<< Manuel: Bay may be back after all
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Mets manager Jerry Manuel initially
indicated he did not expect Jason Bay to return to the team this season due to
the concussion he suffered in late July, then retracted that assessment after
a 7-2 vi
<< A's rally past Rays thanks to error
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Kouzmanoff scored the go-ahead run on an
error in the eighth inning, helping the Oakland Athletics come back for a 5-4
win over the Tampa Bay Rays in the second of four games at Oakland Coliseum.
Kouzma
<< D'Backs rally to beat Rockies in 10 innings
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Upton singled in the 10th and raced
around from first on Kelly Johnson's gap hit to left-center, finishing off
Arizona's 4-3 come-from-behind win over Colorado in the first of three games
at Chas
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. (AP) -Archie Griffin knows that one day he won't be the only multiple Heisman winner.``Somebody's going to do it three times,'' the former Ohio State star said. ``It's not going to be an easy deal, but somebody out there can get it
FBI tracked desegregation suit against Bryant >>
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) -Forty years ago, Alabama football fans watched Southern California and a black running back named Sam Cunningham trounce coach Paul ``Bear'' Bryant's Crimson Tide in a game widely credited with helping start the integration of
AP Preseason No. 1 Teams >>
2009-Florida2008-Georgia2007-Southern Cal2006-Ohio St.2005-Southern Cal2004-Southern Cal-x2003-Oklahoma2002-Miami2001-Florida2000-Nebraska1999-Florida St.-x1998-Ohio St.1997-Penn St.1996-Nebraska1995-Florida St.1994-Florida1993-Florida St.-x1992-Mia
AP National Football Champions >>
2009 - Alabama2008 - Florida2007 - LSU2006 - Florida2005 - Texas2004 - Southern Cal2003 - Southern Cal2002 - Ohio State2001 - Miami2000 - Oklahoma1999 - Florida State1998 - Tennessee1997 - Michigan1996 - Florida1995 - Nebraska1994 - Nebraska1993 - F
AP Poll Board >>
NEW YORK (AP) -The voters for the 2010 Associated Press college football poll:Mark Anderson, Las Vegas Review-Journal; Greg Archuleta, Albuquerque (N.M.) Journal; Bob Asmussen, Champaign (Ill.) News-Gazette; Jack Bogaczyk, Charleston (W.Va.) Daily M
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.